- Chinese equities are still below their 2007 peak.
- Even within the US, you can point to clean tech in 2006-2011 as being a bubble. Even though we've seen an increase in renewables 10 years later, i don't think that makes this not a bubble (bubbles can be when prices get ahead of reality).
2) I agree that Bitcoin is not bubble, but 95% of the shitcoins that went up to stupid levels were bubbles that people called out at the time and were right (ex: Dentacoin). I think it can be true that people were wrong about bitcoin but largely right about the rest (and honestly, the jury is still out about non-bitcoin crypto).
Agree with a lot of this but:
1) I think it takes a very US-centric view of bubbles. Expanding outside of the US makes it clear that bubbles do happen and not just for fraud.
- For example, Japanese real estate was obviously a bubble and is still well down from it's peak 30 years ago. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/02/the-defining-trait-of-all-bubbles-the-willful-suspension-of-disbelief/
- Chinese equities are still below their 2007 peak.
- Even within the US, you can point to clean tech in 2006-2011 as being a bubble. Even though we've seen an increase in renewables 10 years later, i don't think that makes this not a bubble (bubbles can be when prices get ahead of reality).
https://www.bvp.com/atlas/eight-lessons-from-the-first-climate-tech-boom-and-bust
2) I agree that Bitcoin is not bubble, but 95% of the shitcoins that went up to stupid levels were bubbles that people called out at the time and were right (ex: Dentacoin). I think it can be true that people were wrong about bitcoin but largely right about the rest (and honestly, the jury is still out about non-bitcoin crypto).
3) It's not out yet but I'm guessing a lot of the themes you discuss will be in this book by Byrne Hobart, so I'd check it out https://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bubbles-Stagnation-Byrne-Hobart/dp/1953953476