Also, one thing that interests me is dependency... It seems like people love to stop using parts of their brains that technology can support. (From spelling to memory, etc.) But what happens when the technology is doing most of what our brains could have done? Do we turn into vegetables?!
"People will generally have more and more free time... Some argue that historically, jobs have always gotten replaced by higher-leverage ones. But this is deceptive. The amount of leisure time that’s available to people has been steadily rising."
Really? This doesn't match my perception at all. I wouldn't argue that jobs get replaced with higher-leverage ones. That effect seems to depend on the application of the new technology.
But I generally find that technology improvements have *decreased* free time. If I look around my workplace, I see people working long hours in front of computers that theoretically made them way more efficient. Actually, the ability that tech provided to be continuously connected has, it feels, drastically eaten into free time. And I don't see why this changes with AI. If anything, I would expect it to go the other direction.
The link that you shared backs up my point. It's also important to note that the percentage share of people doing economically valuable work is way down. Go to the late 1800s: children were working on farms and in mines, and supporting their parents' businesses. There were practically no "retirees" like we have today. You can say that women largely weren't in the workforce yet, but they were grinding just as hard at home -- household items like doing laundry were horribly time consuming and painful before the invention of the laundry machine. Labor force participation stats capture some of this, but IMO not the full extent. My opinion is that the share of time of living humans in the US/EU spent doing "work" is probably down 60-70%+ since 150 years ago.
Also, one thing that interests me is dependency... It seems like people love to stop using parts of their brains that technology can support. (From spelling to memory, etc.) But what happens when the technology is doing most of what our brains could have done? Do we turn into vegetables?!
On this point:
"People will generally have more and more free time... Some argue that historically, jobs have always gotten replaced by higher-leverage ones. But this is deceptive. The amount of leisure time that’s available to people has been steadily rising."
Really? This doesn't match my perception at all. I wouldn't argue that jobs get replaced with higher-leverage ones. That effect seems to depend on the application of the new technology.
But I generally find that technology improvements have *decreased* free time. If I look around my workplace, I see people working long hours in front of computers that theoretically made them way more efficient. Actually, the ability that tech provided to be continuously connected has, it feels, drastically eaten into free time. And I don't see why this changes with AI. If anything, I would expect it to go the other direction.
That said, I do see: https://ourworldindata.org/working-more-than-ever
The link that you shared backs up my point. It's also important to note that the percentage share of people doing economically valuable work is way down. Go to the late 1800s: children were working on farms and in mines, and supporting their parents' businesses. There were practically no "retirees" like we have today. You can say that women largely weren't in the workforce yet, but they were grinding just as hard at home -- household items like doing laundry were horribly time consuming and painful before the invention of the laundry machine. Labor force participation stats capture some of this, but IMO not the full extent. My opinion is that the share of time of living humans in the US/EU spent doing "work" is probably down 60-70%+ since 150 years ago.